Chicago Mayoral Election Analysis

Election Analysis by Frank Calabrese

Johnson won Black voters and northside liberals. Johnson also won Latino areas in Little Village and Pilsen .. takeaways on why Brandon Johnson won big:

-> Johnson won Black precincts 80%+

-> Johnson did well w/ Latinos, winning Little Village and Pilsen

-> Johnson won big with lakefront liberals, winning the 44th Ward

-> Johnson won big margins in liberal areas like Logan Square


Prediction from Politico Monday Apr 3 2023

wards to watch in mayor’s race


Chicago ward politics will come into play Tuesday when voters hit the polls to decide whether Brandon Johnson or Paul Vallas should succeed Lori Lightfoot as mayor. Here are the five wards that could help determine the outcome:

47th Ward: This is the city’s biggest ward in terms of voters, so whoever wins it could see themselves heading to the Fifth Floor offices of City Hall. “It’s one of the gentrifying wards. Their money leans Vallas, but their politics lean Johnson,” said political science professor Connie Mixon. Vallas had more votes (38 percent) than Johnson (33 percent) in the first round. The biggest question is how Lightfoot voters (10 percent) will break.

44th Ward: This is another big ward. Vallas did well in round one, and he’s endorsed by outgoing Ald. Tom Tunney and incoming Ald. Bennett Lawson. “The 44th Ward is interesting because it sits between Lincoln Park, which leans Vallas, and Uptown, which could lean to Johnson,” notes campaign strategist Clem Balanoff, who worked on Congressman Jesus “Chuy” Garcia’s campaign in the first round. It’s a North Side liberal ward that’s home both to Boystown and white upper-middle class voters who have been concerned about crime. Johnson’s ability to tap into that voting block could make a difference.

25th Ward: This Latino-majority ward that includes the Pilsen neighborhood supported Congressman Jesus “Chuy” Garcia in the first round. Polling has since shown that Vallas is doing well with his public-safety message. Johnson has worked to counter that by ramping up his campaign in the ward. He’s also got the backing of 25th Ward Ald. Byron Sigcho-Lopez.

27th Ward: “This ward is a true toss-up,” says Frank Calabrese, a political consultant who has been analyzing the ward races. The West Side ward has a mix of Black and white voters, and its alderman, Walter Burnett Jr., has endorsed Vallas. “So if Johnson is winning by big margins, it talks to the strength of the overall race.”

18th Ward: This Southwest Side ward has substantial Black and Latino populations that have traditionally voted for pro-police candidates. “It’s a ward that if Johnson isn’t knocking it out of the park, then he’s going to have difficulty in other Black wards,” said political consultant Tom Bowen, who worked on Lightfoot’s campaign. “Eighty percent is the number to watch of the Black vote. Every point under that and it’s perilous for Johnson.”

Sources for Report

Frank Calabrese @FrankCalabrese

23:49 04 Apr 23

5 wards to watch in mayor’s race By SHIA KAPOS 04/03/2023 08:07 AM EDT


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