SUBSCRIPT: 'Who's on First?' (without Abbot and Consello) as Chicago moves from Governor's election to municipal voting in February... Dueling pollings show proof that the only poll that matters takes place on election day
In the town that gave the world the famous "Dewey defeats Truman" headline in 1948 and other examples of wishful partisan thinking since, you'd think that supposedly sophisticated political operatives and their sub-operatives would not be wasting their time and other peoples' attention nearly three months before the actual voting. And yet, alas, a week before Thanksgiving and a week after Chicago teachers finished their grading and "Report Card Pickup," three factions vying for public attention in the upcoming mayoral race each offered the public their version of pollreality -- or at least two of them did.
Results of the Hamilton Campaign poll commissioned by Bob Fioretti's campaign the week before Halloween. The results of the poll above were made known to all of the major decision makers prior to the night of October 31, 2014.On November 18, 2014, the Chicago Teachers Union release a poll showing that their endorsed (albeit controversially) candidate Jesus "Chuy" Garcia was running very very very well against Mayor Rahm Emanuel, while the guy the CTU snubbed, Alderman Bob Fioretti, was not doing as well.
And on November 19 2014, Mayor Rahm Emanuel released his polling showing that not only was Rahm doing very very ver well, but that Rahm will possibly avoid a runoff by beating his major challengers (Garcia and Fioretti) and all the others (the number not yet known) were the voting held today (November 19, 2014). Which, of course it isn't.
In fact, Chicago won't even know who its candidates are until after five p.m. on Monday, November 24, 2014, when the offices of the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners close and the challenges to the petitions submitted by various candidates begin. Signature challenges in Chicago is a finely honed art, such an art that were it done in oil paints it would hang in the halls of the Art Institute of Chicago at the corner of Adams and Michigan, where a few years ago throngs of irate teachers streamed westward protesting the onset of Rahmism. But the art of signature challenges won't be exercised until after five p.m. on November 24.
The art of challenging nominating petitions? It's not only about valid or invalid signatures, but about everything on the petition. While a serious observers can easily catch "round tabling" (where a group of people pass around a petition and sign for voters with whom they have never spoken), other ways of undermining nominations include invalidating entire petitions by challenging the circulator or the notary.
The last iteration of the art of challenging a nomination wasGovernor Pat Quinn, whose term is now heading into its final weeks. Quinn's operatives challenged, successfully, the petitions of the candidates for the Green Party in anticipation of a tight race for governor on November 4, 2014. Quinn got his way with democracy, emitted the Green Party candidate from the November 4 ballot, and ran north of I-80 as "Quinn for Governor" and south of I-80 as "Quinn - Vallas..." Pat Quinn lost despite millions of dollars spend by Quinn and friends reminding people that Bruce Rauner was a billionaire who had said nasty things about workers, teachers, and public pensions -- while trying to ignore the fact that Pat Quinn and Paul Vallas had actually, during their public careers, done nasty things to workers, teachers, and public pensions.
And despite Quinn's surliness about the final result (he wouldn't concede until hours and hours after everyone else noticed that he had lost), Bruce Rauner won the November 4 vote for governor against "Quinn-Vallas." All the other major candidates of the Democratic Party for top offices (Secretary of State Jesse White; Senator Dick Durbin) won. These facts alone call into question the claim, if anyone could have made it with a straight face, that Quinn lost not because of the records of Pat Quinn and his running mate, Paul Vallas, but because 2014 was a year of Republican bullying, voter suppression, etc., etc., etc. If Rauner had won because of the "Year of the Republicans" he would today be working with a serious group of supporters in the Illinois House and Senate. Instead, Illinois' Republican Governor can't do anything but issue executive orders and propose legislation that will fail unless the Democrats (minus Pat Quinn) want it.
And so, as Thanksgiving approaches -- Chicago is facing dueling pollings. We will discuss three here, in reverse order of chronology:
The news came out on November 19 that Rahm Emanuel had a poll showing he was comfortably ahead. As the Sun-Times reported it --
RAHM AHEAD IN POLL DONE BY RAHM
The day before, the media were supposed to report that Chuy Garcia (er., the Chicago Teachers Union) had a poll showing that he was really in the running:
CHIY AHEAD IN POLL DONE BY CHUY (Er., CHICAGO TEACHERS UNION):
Sun-Times reports on November 18, 2014:
Cook County Commissioner Jesus "Chuy" Garcia could be within striking distance of Mayor Rahm Emanuel, a new poll shows.
CTU Poll: 'Chuy,' Fioretti will force Rahm into runoff. MON, 11/17/2014 - 10:39AM BY NATASHA KORECKI
A new survey commissioned by the Chicago Teachers Union says Mayor Rahm Emanuel will be hard-pressed to avoid a runoff election after the February primary.
And in a head-to-head contest, Cook County Commissioner Jesus "Chuy" Garcia could be in striking distance of a victory. The telephone survey conducted by Lake Research Partners of 621 likely Chicago voters found that on a three-way ballot including Emanuel, Garcia and Ald. Bob Fioretti (2nd), Emanuel would take 33 percent of the vote, Garcia 18 and Fioretti 13. A vote total of 50 percent plus one is needed to avoid a runoff election.
In a head-to-head between Garcia and Emanuel, the difference narrowed to five points with Emanuel at 36 percent and Garcia at 31. A large percentage of those surveyed � 30 percent � remained undecided. "The data suggests Jesus �Chuy� Garcia is the candidate in the best position to offer Chicago voters a fresh start from Rahm�s divisive and counterproductive first term," a CTU statement says. The CTU is backing Garcia after CTU president Karen Lewis bowed out of a run following the diagnosis of a cancerous brain tumor.
Garcia's candidacy is CTU's push to have some skin in the game, despite Lewis' absence. The union has engaged in bitter disputes with Emanuel, having gone on strike during his tenure and launching city-wide protests when he closed 50 city schools. Amara Enyia and William Kelly also have announced their candidacies for mayor. The poll had an error margin of plus or minus 3.9 percent.
Emanuel's campaign had no comment on the poll. Fioretti's spokesman said the numbers show Emanuel is both "unpopular and beatable."
"The one constant in public and private polling are the mayor's numbers," said spokesman Michael Kolenc. "He remains unpopular and beatable in February. Bob intends to give voters a choice: more of the same, or a new direction."
Three weeks before that, on the eve of the Chicago Teachers Union snub of Bob Fioretti, a Fioretti sponsored poll showed Fioretti running well in a head-to-head against Emanuel. That poll, which was ignored by some erstwhile power brokers, was known to most of the "players" prior to the Halloween surprise within the Chicago Teachers Union:
By: Theresa D. Daniels
CTU knew Fioretti neck to neck with Rahm?
The last sentence of this article drops a bomb indicating that the CTU knew that Fioretti was doing well in the polls before their announcement at the LEAD event that Chuy was endorsed. However, the sentence ends in a colon, and I am anticipating the rest of the article.